Races tight with election weeks away, UNF poll finds

Democrats have narrowed the races for governor and U.S. senator in Florida with only two weeks until Election Day, according to a new poll from the University of North Florida.

The poll of 1,471 likely midterm voters, released Wednesday by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly by two percentage points.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican Ashley Moody has a four-point lead over Democrat Angie Nixon of Jacksonville.

Both races have narrowed notably since a UNF poll in July, when Donalds held a five-point lead and Moody was up by eight points.

The latest poll was conducted by phone Oct. 12 to 19. The overall margin of error is +/-2.81 percentage points.

“Particularly strong turnout by Democrats would make Jolly slightly favored and Nixon more competitive,” Sean Freeder, a political science professor and faculty director of the research lab, said in a news release. “On the other hand, if Republicans are more enthusiastic than expected, Moody and Donalds could have more comfortable victories.”

Support for each candidate falls largely along party lines, but 11% of registered Republicans indicated a vote for Jolly, while just 5% of Democrats said they would vote for Donalds. Jolly is 16 percentage points ahead of Donalds among Independents, the poll found.

The race appears similar to the gubernatorial race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which DeSantis won by less than a percentage point, Freeder said.

“Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising,” he said.

Trust in candidates

Respondents also were asked which gubernatorial candidate they trust more on issues important to Florida voters.

When it comes to data centers, 41% said they trust Jolly more, while 37% said Donalds. Respondents were roughly split on affordability and cost of living, Donalds with 42% support and Jolly with 43%, the poll said.

More respondents expressed trust in Donalds when it comes to property insurance at 43%, compared to 38% for Jolly.

Moody and Nixon

Similar to the governor’s race, 10% of registered Republicans indicated support for Nixon, while 8% of Democrats said they would vote for Moody. Independents prefer Nixon by 15 percentage points.

Overall, 25% of respondents said that Republican campaign messaging around Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for her. But 12% said they were more likely, and 55% said it did not affect their vote choice.

Among Nixon’s supporters, just 6% reported a negative effect; 23% indicated a positive effect; and 67% said no change.

Hope Florida

Respondents also were asked how Democrats’ messaging about the Hope Florida grand jury report linking Moody to the misappropriation of public funds for political purposes affects their vote choice.

The poll was done a few months after a Florida grand jury found that the DeSantis administration “misappropriated” $10 million in taxpayer money it diverted to a charity connected to his wife. The grand jury declined to file criminal charges due to a lack of evidence indicating who specifically was responsible.

Thirty percent of respondents in the poll said the Democrats’ messaging made them less likely to vote for Moody. Fifteen percent of Moody’s supporters said the messaging had a negative effect, 14% positive and 64% no change.

“Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points and also appear to be more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism,” Freeder said.

“Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds’ and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm.”

Amendment 3

Asked how they would vote on Constitutional Amendment 3, 50% of respondents indicated they would vote “yes,” 10 percentage points short of the 60% supermajority required to pass.

The amendment would increase the homestead property tax exemption for all non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. Those numbers would adjust for inflation after 2028.

Groups as varied as Florida sheriffs and the JAX Chamber have come out against the amendment, saying the drop in taxes would be too costly to city and county governments.

Thirty percent of poll respondents said they would vote “no,” while 14% said they do not know how they would vote on the amendment. Support is greater among registered Republicans than Democrats or Independents.