Ballot boxes at a voting booth. | Felix, rawpixel.com, stock.adobe.com
Published on July 20, 2026 at 4:20 pm
Free local news and info, in your inbox at 6 a.m. M-F. Sign up for the Jacksonville Today newsletter.
Support appears to be mixed for a proposed state constitutional amendment that would phase out a large share of property taxes, according to a poll from the University of North Florida.
Sixty-one percent of the people polled indicated support for the issue when told that it would require local governments to use property taxes only for core public services, UNF said of the poll released Monday. Thirty-two percent of respondents expressed opposition.
Jacksonville Today thanks our sponsors. Become one.
People then were told passage of the amendment could lead to municipal budget shortfalls of about $11.8 billion over two years. In that case, 45% indicated support and 47% opposition.
UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab conducted the poll with a random sample of 848 likely Florida midterm voters from July 8 through 17.
The poll incorporated both telephone interviews and web surveys distributed by text message. A total of 459 were completed by telephone and 389 online. The poll has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Jacksonville Today thanks our sponsors. Become one.
UNF also polled Floridians about the issue in October, though the questioning was somewhat different. At that time, 49% of respondents supported the proposal and 43% were opposed.
The ballot proposal in November would increase the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. It’s currently $50,000.
To pass, the proposal will need approval of at least 60% of voters.
Sean Feeder, faculty director of the UNF research lab, said the poll shows how important the ballot language will be in determining the outcome of the amendment.
“If you just give people a neutral or standard ballot language that it is there to protect core services, but don’t talk about the budget impact, you are looking at about 61% right now — that is going to squeak it right over the line of that 60% threshold,” Freeder said Monday on First Coast Connect on WJCT News.
“If you tell people what the budget impact is, it is a pretty significant change. … That doesn’t even hit majority, so I think the language that’s going to be on the ballot is really a big part of the game.”
Former Republican state Sen. Jeff Brandes and former Democratic congressman Al Lawson have filed suit to challenge the amendment’s ballot language. The suit argues that rather then simply explain the amendment, the ballot language essentially endorses the proposal — with phrases such as “protecting small businesses” and “ensuring fairness for Florida residents.”
Grandes and Lawson contend that the property tax cuts would dramatically curtail revenues for local services like police, fire, libraries, maintenance and community events.
“The very fact that there is a lawsuit and this is being covered and we are talking about those numbers, that’s other ways for people to find out about the budget impact,” Freeder said. “I think this somewhat spells trouble for those wanting it to pass.”
Other poll results
The poll also asked a number of questions about election races, support of current officeholders and current issues.
Among the results:
- The governor’s race: Forty-six percent of respondents supported Republican Byron Donalds, 41% Democrat David Jolly and 5% someone else. Two percent said they wouldn’t vote, and 6% were undecided.
- U.S. senator from Florida: Fifty percent said they would vote for Republican incumbent Ashley Moody over Democrats Angela Nixon of Jacksonville (42%) and Alexander Vindman (40%). One percent said they would vote for someone else, 1% wouldn’t vote, and 6% were undecided.
- Affordability: Twenty-three percent said inflation should be the first priority of Florida’s government. Twenty-one percent said housing costs and property taxes; 20% said property insurance; and 10% said low wages. Three percent said something else. Democrats were more likely to cite inflation (26%), housing costs (32%) and low wages (20%) as the top concern, while Republicans were more focused on property taxes (32%) and property insurance (25%).
- Artificial intelligence. Forty-nine percent supported the general increase in use of artificial intelligence over the past year, and the same percentage were opposed. There was a difference of opinion along party lines: 60% of Republicans showed support, compared to 32% of Democrats. When it comes to data centers, 28% of Floridians said they would support building an AI data center in their local area, and 68% said they would oppose it.
- Trump’s approval rating: President Donald Trump had a lower approval rating than three possible candidates for the 2028 Republican presidential primary: Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they approve of Trump’s performance, and 51% disapproved, with 46% expressing strong disapproval. Vance received similar approval, with 49% saying they approve and 48% disapprove. DeSantis and Rubio fared relatively better, with DeSantis receiving 57% approval and 41% disapproval. Rubio’s approval came in at 56%, with 42% disapproving.
“Though it’s early, Vance’s low support relative to Rubio and DeSantis suggests his proximity to Trump may become a problem for him in the 2028 presidential primary,” Freeder said in an news release. - When it comes to Trump’s foreign policy, 45% of respondents said they approve either strongly or somewhat, and 53% expressed disapproval. When asked about Trump’s speech, personality, and demeanor, approval was notably lower, with 39% saying they approve strongly or somewhat. About half (49%) of the entire sample said they strongly disapprove of Trump’s demeanor and 11% somewhat disapprove, for a total of 60% disapproval.
“Unsurprisingly, perceptions of the pool issue vary greatly by party,” Freeder said in the news release. “That said, less than a majority (45%) of Florida Republicans accept Trump’s explanation of vandalism, and only 18% of Independents said the same.”
