A tropical outlook shows the chance of development across the Atlantic basin for Monday, Aug. 10, 2026.
Published on August 10, 2026 at 10:43 am
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The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic Ocean for possible tropical development, but none of the systems pose a direct threat to Florida.
One of the disturbances is situated north of Bermuda, while the two other tropical waves are well east of the Caribbean islands in the central and eastern Atlantic.
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Despite the appearance of a ramp up of tropical activity, conditions still remain unfavorable for significant development from any of the three systems.
North of Bermuda
The disturbance that is closest to Florida is north of Bermuda and is moving eastward across the open Atlantic.
The Hurricane Center has given the region a low chance of development as it moves in the general direction of Europe.
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While the disorganized disturbance is currently over warm water, by Thursday, the area of low pressure will be over water temperatures that are considered to be too cool for tropical development.
None of the major computer forecast models show significant development of the feature, and it is expected to remain only a marine interest.
In the central Atlantic
A second area being monitored by forecasters is roughly halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African coastline.
The feature is fairly broad, and the NHC has given the area a low chance of development.
Forecast models show the disturbance encountering increasing upper-level winds by the end of the week, which will make conditions hostile for tropical cyclone formation.
Islands throughout the Caribbean are suffering through significant drought conditions, so any enhanced rainfall from the disturbance would be welcome news.
Hostile conditions for tropical cyclones are common during El Nino events and is why the Caribbean Sea is often called the “hurricane graveyard.”
Off African coast
The third area the Hurricane Center is monitoring is off the African coast, but it has the best chance of development as it works its way westward.
Forecasters have given the disturbance a medium chance of development as it moves into the central Atlantic.
However, similar to other features this season, it too will face obstacles such as dry air and hostile upper-level winds.
If the disturbance is able to survive through both of the factors, it has the best chance of becoming Cristobal over the next week or two.
Even if the disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone, significant troughing off the Eastern Seaboard will likely serve as a mechanism to turn the system northward, safely away from the Lower 48.
The increased tropical activity serves as a reminder that the Atlantic basin hurricane season is approaching its climatological peak on Sept. 10.
Roughly two-thirds of all Atlantic tropical cyclone activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10 when sea surface temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere are at their warmest levels of the year.
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