poll trump harrispoll trump harris
Former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are the 2024 presidential nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties. | Will Brown, Jacksonville Today

Trump leads Harris by 10 points in Florida, UNF poll finds

Published on October 21, 2024 at 6:52 am
Free local news and info, in your inbox at 6 a.m. M-F.

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin in Florida, according to a poll released today by the University of North Florida.

Fifty-three percent of the people surveyed support Trump for president compared with 43% for Harris, according to the poll from UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab. Two percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Jacksonville Today thanks our sponsors. Become one.

On other questions:

  • Republican Sen. Rick Scott leads Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 49% to 46% in the U.S. Senate race. One percent said they would vote for someone else, and 4% were undecided.
  • Sixty-six percent of respondents said they would vote to legalize personal use of marjiuana by adults. Thirty-two percent would vote no. The proposed constitutional amendment, Amendment 3, would need 60% of votes to pass.
  • Sixty percent would vote yes for Amendment 4 in support of abortion rights, putting the question at the threshold for passage. Thirty-two percent would vote no. The amendment’s fate could come down to turnout on Election Day, said Michael Binder, faculty director of the research lab and a professor of political science.
  • Article continues below

    Jacksonville Today thanks our sponsors. Become one.
  • Forty-one percent said they would vote for Amendment 1, establishing partisan school board elections. Thirty percent said no, and another 30% said they did not know.

RELATED: Read more in Jacksonville Today‘s Voter Guides

Poll methodology

The poll consisted of 977 likely Florida voters who were surveyed from Oct. 7 to 18. Questions about presidential and Senate races had a margin of error of +/- 3.49 percentage points. The margin of error for other questions was +/- 3.78 points.

After the initial questions about president and Senate choices, undecided respondents were asked in a follow-up question about whom they lean toward if they had to choose between the candidates.

In addition, responses were recorded from those who refused to take the survey but volunteered whom they would vote for before hanging up the phone. These “leaners” and “blurters” are included in the point estimates for president and Senate choices.

“Hurricane Milton making landfall smack dab in the middle of our field period for this poll proved a
big challenge, so we made some methodological choices to increase our coverage and ensure a
representative sample,” Binder said. “Prior research tells us that the folks who blurt out their candidate vote choice and then hang up are very likely to vote, and most of those ‘blurters’ are Trump supporters. This might help explain why his lead widened to 10 points, up from 7 in our last poll back in July.”


author image Senior News Editor

Randy comes to Jacksonville from the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, where as metro editor, he led investigative coverage of the Parkland school shooting that won the 2019 Pulitzer Prize for public service. He has spent more than 40 years in reporting and editing positions in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. 


Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.