Strong El Niño could reshape hurricane season and winter

A potentially strong El Niño is on the radar for later this year, and if that pattern develops, Florida could feel the effects in more ways than one — from hurricane season to a wetter, more active winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says El Niño is favored to develop during the summer of 2026, and strong events have historically increased rainfall and severe weather across Florida while also tending to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

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The last notable super El Niño happened between 2015 and 2016, and it was among the strongest ENSO events ever recorded, according to NOAA.

(ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of Pacific Ocean waters, the National Weather Service says.)

A study published in December 2025 found that super El Niño events can trigger abrupt shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns — and that those effects may become even more pronounced in a warming climate.