Florida state Rep.-elect Emily Gregory, a Democrat, won a special election on March 24, 2026, flipping the House district that is home to President Donald Trump's Palm Beach estate, Mar-a-Lago (seen here in 2022). | AP Photo
Published on March 29, 2026 at 2:52 pm
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Last week saw a couple of surprise results in special elections downstate. Democrat Emily Gregory took the formerly GOP-controlled Florida House seat of President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago in what was an R+19 seat in 2024. And Democrat Brian Nathan stole the Florida Senate seat formerly held by Republican Jay Collins, who won by roughly 10 points in 2022.
Democrats haven’t had a lot of good news in the last eight years or so, falling into superminority status in the Legislature.
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But even though Republicans say special elections are outliers, Democrats believe taking these seats suggests 2026 may be the year of the oft-ballyhooed Blue Wave.
Senate Democratic Leader-designate Tracie Davis of Jacksonville says her party is “extremely optimistic.”
“This is a testament to the work of our great candidates and our Democratic legislators who have been laser focused on securing a more affordable future for Floridians,” Davis said. “The work continues because our communities deserve steady leadership that delivers results on the priorities that matter most and provide real economic relief. We look forward to presenting our case to voters that Democrats are the leaders they can trust.”
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She noted that Sen. Nathan got 77% of the no-party-affiliation vote.
“That almost never happens, but it shows us voters are angry at the direction of the state and our country and are making their voices heard,” Davis added.
Indeed, a GOP consultant says that his party “[pooped] the bed” during Tuesday’s elections with those unaffiliated voters.
The optimism extends to people who may have lost in races before, as repeat House District 17 Democratic candidate Bryson Morgan told this columnist.
“I absolutely believe this momentum translates all across Florida. When we have a Republican trifecta in Tallahassee that is more focused on renaming streets and airports after the current administration and not focusing on rising housing costs, rising insurance premiums, and rising costs of infrastructure, we are going to see people vote for change,” Morgan said.
“Voters want change in Tallahassee, and we saw that last night in Palm Beach and Tampa. When we have Donald Trump’s home district flip to a Democrat and the current lieutenant governor’s former Senate seat in Tampa flip to a Democrat as well, we know the voters are ready for new leadership and change,” he said.
Morgan lost to Rep. Jessica Baker, R-Jacksonville, by 16 points in 2024, but what’s clear is 2026 is a different environment. It’s something that may add a unique wrinkle to something like next month’s special session for congressional redistricting, as GOP margins aren’t quite as wide as they were looking six days ago.
But even if maps up in our corner of the state stay the same, some are eyeing potential flips in even previously safe seats, like U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean’s 4th Congressional District.
Obi Umunna, a consultant for Democrat Michael Kirwan running against Bean this cycle, says, “There is no question that the chaos in Washington is already affecting this race. We are seeing support come in from both Democrats and Republicans far earlier than you would expect. Voters are telling us they are fed up because the cost of living is still too high, gas prices are painful, groceries have not come down, and now the war with Iran is adding even more instability to an economy that was already hurting working families. The promises coming out of Washington simply have not been delivered.”
Similarly, this trend is yet another tailwind benefitting Jacksonville’s Democratic Mayor. She’s +10 in favorability in a GOP internal poll, one that shows potential opponents undefined and unknown in comparison.
A GOP consultant (one who didn’t tell us about the survey) says that won’t necessarily translate at the ballot box. “Jacksonville voters WANT to like their mayor. Our mayors almost always poll well on favorability / job approvals. Even Alvin Brown was near 60% approval the day he lost re-election.”
Happy talk aside, we hear donors Republicans would need are saying they have cold feet and don’t want to back a challenger, even though this columnist is assured that the “invisible primary” is underway and that there will be one GOP candidate you’ve actually heard of on the ballot against Deegan, as opposed to the clown car of the 2023 campaign.
Time will tell. But it’s getting late. And beyond City Council member Rory Diamond, many of the candidates promoted as plausible have said very little about why Deegan must go. Failure to make that argument against this mayor in this Dem-friendly environment feels like political malpractice, if the goal is to deny her four more years.
In that context, the ongoing feud between Deegan and former Mayor Lenny Curry is worth watching, as Curry’s insistence on filling the void of credible opposition reveals that no Republican has stepped up or seems capable of doing so.
While 2023 may have been, to borrow Chris Hand’s nod to Seinfeld, a campaign about nothing, 2027 so far looks way too theoretical to effect regime change on the 4th floor of the St. James Building.
In the end, how is the implied question about whether Curry was a better mayor than Deegan relevant to this cycle and this political environment?
Statewide figures are already eyeing this race. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried says they intend to “protect” Deegan (whatever that means).
Meanwhile, Attorney General James Uthmeier continues to paint the mayor as defined by scandals like probes into JEA and the city’s former sign-in sheets for people carrying guns into city buildings.
But it’s going to take someone being willing to actually make the tough criticisms locally and turn them into earned media to make any of that Tallahassee noise matter.
As T.S. Eliot wrote in “The Wasteland” roughly a century ago: “Hurry up please, it’s time.”
