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NUMBER OF THE WEEK | Hurricane predictions vs. reality

Published on April 11, 2025 at 10:20 am
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Experts are predicting another active hurricane season this year. Colorado State University researchers last week predicted the Atlantic will see 17 named storms, nine of which will be hurricanes. Our Number of the Week is the number of storms predicted to be major hurricanes: 4.

4

The researchers say the above-average prediction is based on a “warmer-than-normal” Atlantic, combined with a certain set of conditions in the Pacific Ocean — which together are a recipe for “a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

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If it seems amusing that researchers all the way in Colorado are focused on hurricanes, know that they’ve been doing this for a long time — more than 40 years.

But how likely is it that their April prediction comes true and we actually see 17 named storms in 2025? Here’s the track record for CSU’s April predictions going back three decades.

Looks like we might be in for even more storms. CSU’s April predictions tend to be lower than the actual amount of storms in a given year, including the record-setting 2020 season, which brought 30 named storms.

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Of course, as meteorologists like to remind us, it can take just one storm hitting us to cause catastrophic damage, so stay alert during the season, June 1- Nov. 30, for what’s brewing out in the Atlantic. We recommend downloading the Florida Storms app for forecasts.

And keep this in mind when planning your vacations (and weddings and birthday parties): The most active part of hurricane season is generally in September.

Peak storm season is in mid-September | National Hurricane Center

author image Reporter email Megan Mallicoat is a Jacksonville Today reporter focusing on education. Her professional experience includes teaching at the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications, as well as editing, communications management, web design, and graphic design. She has a doctorate in mass communication with an emphasis in social psychology from UF. In her "free time," you'll most likely find her on the sidelines of some kind of kids’ sports practice, holding a book. author image Editor email Jessica Palombo is editor of Jacksonville Today. Jacksonville is her hometown.

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