Randy Fine, left, and Josh Weil | Florida House of Representatives and Josh Weil campaign
Published on March 30, 2025 at 10:29 pm
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Victory has a thousand fathers. Defeat is an orphan.
That old axiom applies to the Congressional District 6 special election to fill National Security Adviser Mike Waltz’s unexpired term. (Waltz left Congress to join the White House after winning last November with two-thirds of the vote).
Votes in CD 6 will be counted tomorrow evening.
Republican state Sen. Randy Fine may still emerge victorious, based on the fact that 47% of the district is registered GOP, and only 26% are Democrats.
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But if he wins the race against Josh Weil, it’s because of a “save the whales” style effort from Republicans, many of whom don’t exactly like him, to get him over the finish line in an effort to preserve a paper-thin Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
In addition to very early supporter Donald Trump holding a “tele-townhall” with Fine, DOGE master Elon Musk has put at least $10,000 into a text message campaign for the surprisingly embattled candidate. And even Fine’s old nemesis Ron DeSantis, who Fine accused of coddling neo-Nazis, has dispatched political help.
Of course, that doesn’t mean DeSantis is saying anything nice about Fine.
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He predicts “underperformance” compared to past cycles for Republicans and says that’s due to a “candidate-specific problem.”
“They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Donald Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race,” the governor told reporters last week.
Polls show a margin of error race. And consistent with that, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin is campaigning with Weil, while Bernie Sanders is endorsing from afar.
There are some good reasons it’s so close.
For starters, Fine didn’t live in the district when the campaign began. While his primary opponents lacked the juice to exploit that non-residency, the polling suggests that (along with his feud with Gov. DeSantis in recent years) matters. A St. Pete’s Poll released this month shows 15% of Republicans crossing over to Weil.
Another factor in Weil’s favor is money.
Florida Democrats have gotten used to their candidates being buried in money from business PACs and the like, but this time around, it’s different. Weil has raised more than $10 million, putting him well ahead of Fine, who has tried in recent days to close the gap … but there’s only so much that can be done at this point.
Weil’s money advantage has allowed him to use the Republican playbook against the flat-footed Fine, as a new ad depicting the senator as “dangerous” and “radical” and “anti-American” shows. The piece de resistance? A superimposition of the senator against a Chinese flag.
This might not work against a candidate people in the district know. But the reality is that no one in CD 6 ever saw Fine on a ballot until this cycle. He’s from the Melbourne area, which is a far piece from much of the district, including its northern tier in St. Johns County.
Weil isn’t a perfect candidate either, of course. He’s had some comportment issues emerge during his teaching career regarding student discipline and a female colleague, and he’s spent more than $60,000 on short-term rentals during the few weeks of this campaign, which taints his populist messaging with the implications of a slush fund.
In a general election, that might hurt him. But in a special election, where the unknown Randy Fine doesn’t mean much to district Republicans and where Weil has every resource advantage, the Democrat seems able to weather attacks from his opponent.
So how does this go in the end?
One historical antecedent may be Waltz’s own race against Ambassador Nancy Soderberg back in 2018. Polls showed that one being close, but Trump’s endorsement and a late surge powered Waltz to a convincing victory.
Regardless of who wins on April 1, the 2026 campaign begins April 2.
If Weil comes out ahead, Republicans will see a pickup opportunity, and candidates with more local bona fides than Fine will enter.
And if Fine wins?
He will be primaried. And it will be from someone who has run and won among these voters before.
It’s hard to predict that election this far out. But what’s for sure is the next year-and-a-half will be very profitable for political consultants in this part of the state.
