Published on November 4, 2024 at 7:43 pm
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The National Hurricane Center has officially named the system over the Caribbean Rafael.
The tropical storm is moving north at 9 mph and will continue to move toward the north-northwest. It travels over very warm water, and the wind shear is expected to be low through Wednesday as it approaches western Cuba.
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Rafael could reach Category 2 hurricane status just before reaching La Habana Province. Once the system enters the Gulf, water temperatures are much cooler, and it will encounter high wind shear, putting a good dent in the system.
The wind shear will also shift all its convention to the east, mostly affecting the western half of Florida.
The Lower Keys are under a tropical storm watch, and if the Hurricane Center’s official track verifies, they could be put under a hurricane warning as the system passes to their west.
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Of course, this will also depend on how much the system’s structure is damaged after its passage across western Cuba. This will likely be the only part of Florida that will experience the strongest winds.
This track relies on the high to break, and the next trough will pull the system northward.
If the high remains strong, the system will shift westward, and in this scenario, the system will have a chance to remain stronger. But if the high breaks, Rafael will turn north and encounter much less favorable conditions, weakening the storm.
Also, with a northward trend, the shear will separate the wind from the moisture; the wind will head to Gulf Coast states (tropical storm force winds) and rain over Florida, southern Georgia and perhaps the southern portion of South Carolina.
