Published on October 5, 2024 at 12:35 pm
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Tropical Depression 14 formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning, according to experts at the National Hurricane Center.
This tropical development comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene caused devastating damage over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
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By the early to middle part of the upcoming week, forecasters at the Hurricane Center anticipate that Tropical Depression 14 will strengthen into potentially a Category 2 hurricane. It’s name, should strengthening occur, would be Milton.
Milton’s development
An area of thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico has been monitored since the end of September, when Helene was making landfall over Florida’s Big Bend.
As of late Saturday morning, the thunderstorm cells had organized enough to be defined as a tropical depression.
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Officials said winds were up to 35 mph and storm motion was slow, at about 3 mph toward the northeast.
The system is expected to linger over the western Gulf of Mexico through the weekend before it begins to accelerate eastward by the early workweek.
The depression is in a favorable environment of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, the Hurricane Center said.
“These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days,” forecasters said in an update at 11 a.m.
Life-threatening hazards
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida peninsula next week,” the Hurricane Center said.
Heavy rain is expected over the southern half of the Florida peninsula this week.
The preliminary rainfall forecast through the following Saturday is between 4 and 8 inches for locations along and south of Interstate 4 and for the immediate Atlantic Coast.
Two to 3 inches of rain are expected in the Jacksonville area, based on Saturday’s forecast.
The forecast will likely change over the next few days, but the overall theme will remain consistent: Heavy rainfall for parts of the peninsula will pose a mounting threat for flash flooding next week.
Forecasters expect at least blustery onshore winds in Northeast Florida strengthening Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville. Deteriorating coastal and marine conditions and tidal flooding are expected, especially within the St. Johns River basin.
The amount of rain will depend on exactly where the storm crosses Florida, the Weather Service said.
Already weakened trees and limbs from Helene could lead to additional tree damage, the forecast says.
The Jacksonville area has a 20 to 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, meaning at least 39 mph, the National Hurricane Center says.
Interests over the Florida peninsula are urged to monitor the forecast closely and to check their family’s hurricane plan.
Copyright 2024 Storm Center
