The race for the White House between Republican nominee Donald Trump and presumptive Democratic pick Kamala Harris arguably presents the most stark contrast between candidates and policies in decades.

A Boomer white Republican male is taking on a multi-ethnic Gen X Democratic woman, and as different as the headline candidates are, their policies are even more so.

While Florida’s Republican lean in voter registration suggests the state’s 30 electoral votes may not be in play for Democrats, it’s a much more open question whether Duval County itself — which has a dwindling-but-still-real Democratic plurality of more than 10,000 votes — will do in 2024 what happened in 2020, and choose the Democrat over Trump.

Much is at stake in this election, not least of which for local political figures, many of whom have a vested interest in a Trump victory.

Jacksonville’s Susie Wiles and Brian Hughes, of course, are top strategists on the Trump campaign. Wiles has been with Trump for nearly a decade now, helping to normalize him in 2016’s unlikely victory over Hillary Clinton, not abandoning him despite the debacle of 2020 and the disaster of J6, and now working to guide him strategically in a presidential race radically changed earlier this month when Joe Biden stood down for reelection.

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Hughes boarded the Trump train this cycle and has already been a provocative quote in national press, memorably and presciently saying earlier this month that it would be premature for JD Vance to commit to a VP debate because it was unclear who would be the Democratic nominee for that role. 

And others also stand to benefit from a Trump win, should it happen.

Consultant Alex Pantinakis, who blazed a trail through local Republican politics over the last decade, is engaged with the Republican Party of Florida. A Trump win could only boost him going forward.

And then there’s former Mayor Lenny Curry, who is still mulling his next political move. Some have suggested he might have a hard time running for Congress once John Rutherford leaves office because his mayoral record may not play in a GOP primary as the party currently is. A Trump win and a White House appointment would solve that problem for him.

While local Republicans stand to benefit, the fact is that for now — and at least until 2027 — the most important politician in town is Mayor Donna Deegan.

Deegan is all in on Harris, calling her “well-qualified” and saying she has been central to the current administration.

Indeed, it’s clear that the mayor has a personal affinity for the VP as well as a political alliance. During local appearances, she supported the vice president’s criticisms of Florida’s Black History education standards in 2023 and the abortion ban after six weeks of pregnancy this year. 

And as Deegan has noted, the Biden-Harris administration has been an effective partner for the mayor’s office, especially timely given DeSantis and Tallahassee Republicans aren’t exactly funneling money to the city for its needs and priorities. 

A Trump White House wouldn’t be as useful, placing further constraints on a city budget that already sees Deegan proposing tapping $47.2 million in reserves for one-time costs amid a raft of aggressive spending that includes labor deals for public safety and a stadium renovation north of $800 million in today’s money, which includes the associated riverfront park spending already approved.

Naturally, no Democrats locally have any sustained criticisms of Harris that they are verbalizing at this point. And this tracks with the state of Florida itself, where Democratic Chair Nikki Fried and the vast majority of Democratic National Convention delegates fell in behind Harris very soon after Biden announced his decision not to pursue a second term.

Will it be enough to ensure Trump loses Duval County for the second time in four years? That’s an open question. Gov. Ron DeSantis has talked recently about how he expects Duval to be a GOP-plurality county sooner than later, and the parties are quickly approaching functional parity for what that’s worth — though there are those who pick one party or another because they live in gerrymandered districts that are decided in August primaries, a phenomenon that skews the numbers.

This columnist expects Harris and Trump both to play in Jacksonville — rallies and all that. And they should. Even if Florida isn’t in play, Georgia is, and Jacksonville is a South Georgia media market. 

A Landmark Communications poll released last week shows a margin of error race in the Peach State, with Harris able to consolidate Democrats who were starting to stray amid Biden’s struggles.

And Florida may still be in play — in the most rock ‘em sock ‘em political cycle of most readers’ lifetimes, it’s a fool’s errand to rule out more seismic changes that can’t be foretold at this writing, including some that create a path for the VP to be competitive in November.

What is clear today is that for Jacksonville’s political class, a lot is at stake, personally and professionally. And that drama will be worth watching in the months ahead.